Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Can economic shocks increase the political power of religious leaders? I investigate this question using over 700 years of Nile flood data. I find that deviant Nile floods decreased the probability of change of Egypt s highest-ranking religious authority by resignation or dismissal by roughly one-half. To better understand if this relationship represents an increase in political power, I examine historical evidence and the effects of Nile shocks on the construction of religious structures. In addition, I use variation in the popular followings of religious leaders, data on the tenure of Egypt s highest-ranking tax collector and data on solar eclipses and earthquakes. Together the evidence suggests that deviant Nile floods led to an increase in the political power of religious authorities that was rooted in their control over popular support.